Five Key Takeaways From The German Election

Over the weekend, Germany held its 2025 federal elections (23 February), which saw the conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU), led by Chancellor Friedrich Merz, secure victory.

Mainstream media, particularly left-leaning outlets, framed the results as a crushing defeat for the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), painting the election as a rejection of “Nazis,” “Putin sympathizers,” and a strong vote for a unified European Union. But the data reveals a different narrative—one that shows a significant surge in support for the AfD, despite efforts to downplay their success.

Here are five key takeaways from the election.

AfD doubled their parliament seats

The once-marginal AfD has now become the second-largest party in the German parliament, doubling its support in just four years—from 10% of the vote in 2021 to 20% in 2025.

In the 2021 German elections, AfD secured 83 seats—a loss of 11 seats compared to 2017. This time around, the party won 152 seats, solidifying its position as the second-largest force in parliament.

However, despite this historic gain, AfD remains sidelined from governance. Germany’s major parties maintain a “firewall” policy, refusing any coalition with extremist parties. Chancellor-elect Friedrich Merz reaffirmed this stance:

“I will not have any talks with the AfD about any kind of cooperation. Out of NATO? Out of the Euro? On Putin's lap? I'm not in the CDU to throw overboard everything that made us big and strong.”

The issues that were most important for AfD voters: 1) Immigration 2) Internal Security 3) Economy 4) Peacekeeping 5) Rising Prices. Immigration and the refugee crisis, in particular, dominated the priorities of AfD supporters (see graphic below).

Young men voted overwhelming for AfD

Mirroring trends seen in the U.S. presidential elections, young men in Germany gravitated toward the right. A striking 27% of men aged 18-24 voted for AfD, while only 16% supported the CDU.

Young women, on the other hand, leaned hard left. 35% of women aged 18-24 backed Die Linke (The Left Party), compared to just 14% for AfD. Some analysts attribute this polarization to the “TikTok effect,” suggesting that social media has exposed young voters to more extreme political ideologies, pulling them further right or left.

The priorities of Left party voters starkly contrast AfD’s base. Die Linke supporters were most concerned with social security and climate change—issues that resonate with a demographic that, notably, includes a significant number of unemployed voters.

Yet, despite the media focus on young leftist voters, AfD’s growing support among both young men and women signals a broader trend: Germany’s major parties, like the CDU and SPD, are losing their grip on younger generations.

The East and West are divided

The historic divide between East and West Germany still heavily influences voting patterns. AfD dominated in East Germany—aside from Berlin, nearly the entire region turned AfD blue. In contrast, CDU/CSU maintained dominance in the West.

AfD made significant inroads into former strongholds of the center-left SPD, particularly in the southeast, and is steadily pushing westward.

Yet, despite their ideological differences, both CDU/CSU and AfD campaigned on a common promise: tighter border controls.

Germans voted for closed borders

Border control was a central issue in this election. Both CDU/CSU and AfD ran on platforms promising stricter immigration policies.

CDU/CSU, under Merz, pledged to close Germany’s borders to migrants, following public outrage over a recent stabbing incident involving an Afghan migrant in Bavaria.

AfD took a more hardline approach, advocating for “re-migration”—both closing borders and deporting migrants.

Combined, CDU and AfD secured 49% of the vote, suggesting that nearly half of German voters support tougher immigration policies.

However, in a surprising twist, Merz has already begun walking back his campaign promises. In his first post-election press conference, he stated:

“None of us wants to close the borders.”

This has fueled speculation that CDU may form a coalition with left-leaning parties—despite those parties being widely rejected by voters. AfD leader Alice Weidel didn’t hold back:

“If the CDU commits electoral fraud against its own voters by forming a coalition with the left, the next election will come sooner than you think.”

Women turned out for AfD

A common media narrative portrays AfD as a party fueled by extremist white men, while young women are celebrated for supporting leftist parties. But the data tells a more complex story.

While young women overwhelmingly backed Die Linke, AfD also saw a significant increase in female support. In fact, the share of women voting for AfD grew by 10 percentage points compared to the last election.

• Men (Männer): +12 point increase for AfD
• Women (Frauen): +10 point increase for AfD

The gender divide isn’t as stark as the headlines suggest. AfD’s ability to broaden its base—across age, gender, and region—shows the party is no longer a fringe movement but a key player in Germany’s political landscape.

Whether the CDU can maintain its leadership without alienating its voter base—or whether AfD will continue its westward expansion—remains to be seen. But one thing is clear: Germany’s political center is shrinking, and its electorate is more polarized than ever.